Economic Take
“Transitory” Tells the Full Inflation Story

“Transitory” Tells the Full Inflation Story

July 27, 2021

Inflation readings and price pressures all point toward pandemic bottlenecks. That’s why the Fed’s “transitory” explanation is the right idea.

Ready for the Challenge: Leaders Optimistic on Innovation

Ready for the Challenge: Leaders Optimistic on Innovation

July 20, 2021

A JPMorgan Chase survey of mid-sized businesses suggests leaders are confident as companies bounce back from the pandemic. They also give insight into how they navigated the last year, and, perhaps more importantly, how they plan to take on the next challenges and opportunities.

 

What’s Fueling Price Jumps at the Pump?

What’s Fueling Price Jumps at the Pump?

July 13, 2021

We’re moving around again, and that’s giving a lift to industries slowed by the pandemic. Jim explains how the energy and aviation sectors offer a glimpse at what’s ahead.

How Much More GDP Will it Take to Fix the Job Market?

How Much More GDP Will it Take to Fix the Job Market?

July 6, 2021

The nation’s GDP has just about recovered to pre-pandemic levels. So why isn’t the job market catching up? Jim explains why the economy’s going to have to grow much faster to hit Fed targets.

 

Why Housing’s Outlook is Still Bright

Why Housing’s Outlook is Still Bright

June 29, 2021

May home sales fell for the fourth straight month as tight inventories and rising prices put a drag on the market. Time to worry? Jim offers four reasons why he thinks housing will be favorable in the coming months.

 

 

Connecting the Dots on the Fed’s Rate Move

Connecting the Dots on the Fed’s Rate Move

June 22, 2021

So it’s happened. On June 16, the Federal Reserve announced an earlier time line for when it might raise interest rates. With the markets still shifting in response, Jim takes a deeper look at what Fed policymakers said—and why watching the economy’s reopening in the coming weeks could tell us much more. 

Why the Fed Thinks Price Increases are Temporary

Why the Fed Thinks Price Increases are Temporary

June 15, 2021

There’s plenty of continuing concern about inflation, but Jim notes that the Fed’s message about higher prices being “transitory” remains on point. He points out that supply chain bottlenecks forced by sudden, fast-returning demand in key industries are the more likely culprit in today’s rising prices, and could be temporary. 

 

Why Taper Talk Shouldn’t Trigger a Market Tantrum

Why Taper Talk Shouldn’t Trigger a Market Tantrum

June 8, 2021

Last week, the Fed reported its members discussed whether it’s time to start talking about adjusting asset purchases the central bank has used to steer the pandemic economy—triggering brief market volatility. Jim thinks the Fed won’t keep policy easy forever, but likely won’t rush to unwind either. Here’s why. 

People, Productivity and the Pandemic Recovery

People, Productivity and the Pandemic Recovery

June 1, 2021

Labor productivity is one of the toughest economic concepts to measure, yet a central storyline in every economic rebound. Jim looks at how demographic trends, technological advancements and policy changes could shape human productivity, hiring and economic growth during the pandemic recovery—and beyond. 

 

 

What Do Inflationary Signals Mean Now?

What Do Inflationary Signals Mean Now?

May 25, 2021

Inflation news continues to drive headlines—rising prices for cars, lumber, gasoline and basic materials will do that. But central banks—including the Fed—have called these pricing pressures “transitory.” Jim explains why there’s much more to the current inflation picture than what’s on the sales receipt.

 

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