A podcast covering the latest on the economy with JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking’s Head Economist, Jim Glassman.
The still-dropping unemployment rate and the solid state of consumers are giving the US economy a lot of momentum at the start of 2020. Also this week: why much of credit card spending has more to do with convenience than households’ growing debt obligation.
December job numbers take the top spot—employment gains were a bit soft, but this pattern has shown up before when Thanksgiving falls late in the month. This hiring slowdown may continue in 2020 if the unemployment rate remains low. Also this week: A wrap-up of other economic news from the holiday break.
A lot happened last week, from the House signing off on the USMCA to the suspension of additional tariffs on China and Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party winning by a landslide in the UK election. Also, a look at this week’s economic calendar, which includes a second revision to the Q3 GDP estimate and slightly elevated jobless claims.
The hot job market has academic economists—and the Fed—talking about the benefits of a high-pressure economy. However, it’s probably only a matter of time before job growth slows for natural reasons. What this means is we should focus more on unemployment trends as the economy transitions to steady-state.
Tags:,Job Growth, High-Pressure Economy, Jobless Claims, Economic Trends
As 2019 comes to a close, the stock market continues to break records, unemployment remains low and inflation pressures are absent. Will this steady-state growth continue in the new year? The labor market and monetary policy could hold clues for what to expect in 2020.
Last week, the Fed released its quarterly Financial Stability Report, which monitors four financial vulnerabilities that could cause widespread problems in times of stress. Thankfully, the Fed’s assessment is that the financial system remains well-balanced, and inflation is not posing a threat today as it did on the eve of past recessions.
Business investment trends—the spending that supports business revenues far into the future—get a lot of attention among the economy-watching community. This year’s slowdown is a big story, but there might be more to it than meets the eye.
In a surprising twist, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he doesn’t expect to raise rates until core inflation moves above 2 percent on a sustained basis. This could represent an important innovation in the Fed’s management of the economy.
The Federal Reserve appears to be taking a timeout after its rate cut last week. With the October jobs report stronger than expected given the GM strike, all signs seem to support the Fed’s decision to sit back and monitor the situation—at least for now.
Ongoing angst in the industrial sector has led analysts to talk recession, but there are several reasons this slump likely isn’t cause for alarm—including that industrial activity only accounts for 10 percent of the total economy and central banks will likely be able to cushion the impact from stalled industrial activity.
