A podcast covering the latest on the economy with JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking’s Head Economist, Jim Glassman.
The Senate’s historic $2 trillion stimulus package includes key provisions aimed at keeping small businesses and individuals afloat. These measures, including an expanded unemployment insurance system, can offer considerable help at a time when business disruptions don’t appear to be slowing down.
The economic landscape is changing rapidly as more businesses and public spaces are locked-down to combat the spread of COVID-19. As governments and central banks step in to help provide relief, individuals are also getting creative with how they deal with disruption.
The federal government and the Federal Reserve are now working on multiple fronts to contain the spread of COVID-19 and soften its impact on the economy. The shock to US domestic demand from closures, cancellations and other preventative actions will likely be one of the main economic challenges. That said, there are three undercurrents helping to cushion the economy from this blow. Also this week: How the OPEC price war may provide a much-needed source of economic stimulus.
While it’s hard to look beyond the public health and economic impacts of COVID-19, it’s important to remember that the economy is more resilient than some may think. Consumers will probably benefit from falling oil prices and interest rates, and businesses are better prepared than ever to mitigate supply and demand disruptions.
While it’s too early to make predictions about the lasting economic effects of the coronavirus, it’s not surprising that it has impacted our interconnected global system. We’ll have to wait and see if this downswing in economic activity will be followed by an expected rebound.
The labor force participation rate has dropped 3 percent in the past decade, leading some economists to reason there are many people who have yet to return to the job market. But with low unemployment and the full recovery of participation for people in their prime working years (25-54 years old), the overall decrease is likely due to the outsized retirement of baby boomers. Pay more attention to the steady trends in jobless claims to help chart the future course of the economy.
The latest economic news cycle has featured heartburn-inducing reports of Chinese supply-chain disruptions, energy sector headwinds and the first hard numbers on the impact of Boeing’s suspended jet production. However, a closer look at jobless claims—a more reliable economic measure—should relieve worries about growth prospects.
January’s jobs report was impressive, pointing to a robust job market that should make it easier to weather upcoming storms. Three things you probably didn’t hear about from the jobs report: revisions showed more businesses were hiring last year than originally estimated despite worrisome economic rhetoric, the amount of working-age people in the workforce is back up to the highs of two decades ago, and unemployment rose—in a good way.
As the coronavirus from China stifles short-term economic output, an otherwise unsurprising fourth-quarter GDP report gives perspective on long-term US economic health. Two takeaways on the data: demand for American-made goods could pick up by summer and even the slower pace of US economic growth in 2019 was enough to shrink unemployment.
The temporary shutdown of production on the 737 Max 8 planes could cause serious problems for workers in areas where the aircraft industry has a big footprint. Fortunately, last week brought optimistic news for Boeing. Also this week: the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak, breaking down a congested economic calendar and a status report on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2018.
